Conflicts: more complexity tomorrow

[Opinion] Re-emergence of symmetric conflicts in a more complex and integrated battlespace: how Thales is preparing the defence solutions of tomorrow.

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The attacks of September 11 led to a series of asymmetric engagements, in which western forces pitched themselves against loosely organised transnational insurgent forces.

This refusal direct confrontation marked a turning point for western military superiority and forced both sides to develop new forms of warfare. Western forces therefore had to reconfigure to deal with the particular threats associated with this type of conflict, such as terrorism, sabotage, ambushes and fighting in populated areas. However, symmetric conflicts are by no means a thing of the past — as illustrated by the rising tensions between military powers in Eastern Europe and the Far East.

We are thus seeing a return to conventional types of confrontation — but between societies transformed by new information and communication technologies. This new, digital battlespace encompasses the land, air, naval and space environments but also includes the fight to control the electromagnetic spectrum and flows of information, and underscores the crucial importance of information superiority.

The crisis situations of the new decade are spilling over into new arenas, from satellites orbiting the Earth to the silicium core of our information networks. In this increasingly integrated battlespace, the distinction between defence and security is becoming increasingly blurred.

Preventing and defusing these new types of crises calls for transformation across he board (organisations, weapons, defence-security continuum), to help these new forces achieve information and decision superiority. The classical OODA loop — observe, orient, decide and act — is giving way to SUDS : Sense, Understand, Disseminate (intelligence, commander's intent) and Synchronise (manoeuver and effects), and the different phases in the cycle are increasingly happening in parallel, as both sides seek to gain and retain initiative, while preventing the adversary from doing the same. It has become crucial to gather, process and disseminate timely information about the adversary's centres of gravity, in order to make faster decisions and respond with accurate, controlled and measurable effects, while minimising risks of friendly fire and collateral damage. As threats continue to evolve, the way we anticipate and defeat them is becoming increasingly focused on safeguarding the future of our information societies.

2020 scenarios

No. 1 worldwide in extended air defence, No. 1 worldwide in information management systems, the world's leading supplier of command and intelligence systems to NATO and No. 1 in Europe in defence electronics, Thales is a key partner of defence and security forces around the globe.

We work closely with our customers to prepare for the defence missions of tomorrow, in a partnership involving procurement, militaries, and industry. Part of this collaborative approach involves developing credible scenarios for managing future crisis situations, by inserting the technologies of tomorrow into the defence-security continuum today. For example, 2020 scenarios developed along these lines clearly show a major shift in military operations from 2015. They will rely increasingly on operations in cyberspace, orbital space, a complex maritime domain from the shorelines to ocean floors, all with increased use of robotic, more autonomous systems in sea, air, land and online.

These scenarios include:

• Space Situational Awareness
• Advanced air defence
• Maritime Domain Awareness
• Security for critical installations and major cities
• Cyber defence

All these scenarios rest on a deep technical and operational knowledge, as well as recent references worldwide. Responding to the new challenges of the digitised battlespace, Thales is developing operational capabilities to protect and safeguard our societies as their dependence on information increases:

• Mission support and services
• Protection for deployed forces and infrastructure
• Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR)

Anticipating the complexity of the near future, Thales is designing network-enabled, information-centric solutions that can be integrated with legacy systems today to match requirements of tomorrow.