How the Middle East Conflict is Influencing the Future of Naval Operations

What lessons do you draw from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East?

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is, no doubt, far from over. Nevertheless, it is already possible to draw certain lessons, which echo those taken from previous conflicts.  I will mention four: 

The first, particularly true in the naval domain, is that at sea, you are not safe anywhere. The torpedoing of the Iranian corvette, far from the area of operations, is a striking example. 

The second is the importance of resilience, that is, the ability to endure over time. It is difficult today to say who, between the Americans or the Iranians, will reach their limits first. On one side, there is striking capacity, with the risk of ammunition stock depletion; on the other, the capacity to absorb and retaliate. 

The third, which is not new, is the importance of intelligence. Intelligence is the key to action at all levels: strategic, operational, and tactical. What is new, however, is the ability to rapidly exploit this intelligence to accelerate the decision and engagement cycle. The Americans have become masters in this area, with, as a result, an efficient C2 based on a strong AI component. 

The fourth lesson is that, in a context where the air threat is increasingly characterized by a growing number of missiles and drones of all types, having a robust and adaptable air defence capability has become vital. 

What can Thales take away from this conflict?

I repeat, the conflict is not over and, in reality, we know little about the difficulties faced by the belligerents. At this stage, I will mention four priorities for Thales.

First of all, the necessity for the robustness of our In-Service Support (Maintien en Condition Opérationnelle – MCO). Our navy clients expect from us, in all places and circumstances, effective and responsive support. The near-total deployment of the French Navy at sea is proof of the effectiveness of its support system, but this situation—which could last—obliges us.

Next, the need to help navies quickly strengthen their air and drone defence capabilities; NATO uses the acronym IAMD, for Integrated Air and Missile Defence. Thales has just launched its all-in-one SkyDefender system, which combines sensors, effectors, and C2 solutions. The deployment of these capabilities must be accelerated.

Thirdly, we must help navies improve their tactical awareness and accelerate their decision-making and action capabilities. Ongoing work within the Thales Group meets this need.

Fourthly, even though we have very little information on the matter, we must quickly provide forces with tools for mastering the electromagnetic spectrum. Combat connectivity, both defensive and offensive electronic warfare, and management of the electromagnetic signature are the foundation of this capability. Here too, the Americans are leading the way.

You did not mention anti-submarine warfare. Do you see any lessons to be learned from ongoing operations?

The imbalance between the two belligerents is considerable, and it is likely that most of Iran's submarine capability has been destroyed. However, the threat from underwater drones remains. This stealthy threat is extremely difficult to detect and counter. I do not know what Tehran’s capabilities are in this area, but there is no reason to rule out the possibility that it could benefit from the assistance of certain powers not involved in the conflict but possessing this capability, which is fearsome threat in littoral zones. 

Finally, in the underwater domain, mining the Strait of Hormuz remains a plausible scenario. Should this occur, clearing the Strait to reopen it to navigation as quickly as possible would become an operational requirement, once safety conditions are met. The capabilities provided by Thales to the French and British navies, at the leading edge of performance, could then be called upon.