eSIM at Scale: Unlocking Opportunities & Preparing for the Next Phase

2026 is shaping up to be a real transition year for the technology. eSIM only devices are set to launch in numerous regions outside the US, and over the next few years take-up will go from strength to strength. 

More than 500 operators now support eSIM-enabled devices, and it’s been predicted by GSMA Intelligence that by 2030 there will be 4.9 billion eSIM smartphone connections worldwide – 55% of the total number of mobile connections. 

Successful eSIM migrations are all about user experience. End users are used to the simplicity of physical SIMs, and it is therefore important that at least the same level of user experience is maintained with eSIMs. But with so many types of devices, brands and individual Mobile Network Operator (MNO) systems, managing this experience can be complex.

It means MNOs must take a full lifecycle approach to eSIM provisioning, examining every stage to reduce and remove friction that might impact customer satisfaction – and churn – the most. Widespread availability of the technology in markets like Europe is increasing competitive pressure to accelerate eSIM deployments, and there’s already a large base of eSIM devices in the field. eSIM transfers and after‑sales situations, such as device loss, breakage, or upgrades, are the two areas that demand particularly close attention. 

Positive user experiences also depend on what’s happening behind the scenes. Having a robust, streamlined eSIM supply chain, with eSIM profiles always on hand, is essential to protect service continuity. Running out of the right profile at the wrong moment can cause service interruption. 

To eliminate this risk, MNOs will often overstock eSIM profiles as a precaution. However, as demand for eSIM continues to grow, this isn’t a viable solution. Every unused profile ties up resources, and at the scale at which telco operators work, this really starts to add up. Every MNO’s goal should be to have lean and sustainable profile stock management that meets demand while reducing the digital footprint. To do this, operators need better visibility and control over their stock of eSIM profiles.

Establishing closer management and control over this provisioning is not just about cost control – it also creates new business models and opportunities for MNOs. They can go beyond the traditional prepaid & postpaid subscription, for example, to enable the creation of digital sub-brands or address IoT markets. Try & Buy promotions are also made easier, with carriers able to reach new subscribers with offers of this kind, giving them fast network access as a trial to promote their network.

Heading into the future, MNOs will need to continually work to evolve their eSIM programs to keep pace with future challenges – both now and what’s coming along in the future. 

Amongst the immediate priorities is fraud. The same fraud risks the industry is used to with SIM cards will also happen on eSIM, with serious legal, reputational and financial risks for MNOs. With the use of specialist subscription manager platforms, operators can closely monitor eSIM download activity, report and block suspicious downloads. 

In the future, we’re likely to see more cryptographic-related risks emerge. The eventual emergence of an operable quantum computer that could one day break existing encryption methods is considered a very real possibility. Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) attacks – where encrypted sensitive data is captured now, in the hopes that they’ll be able to break the encryption later – must be prevented to avoid putting the confidentiality of eSIM device communications at risk. The vendors responsible for subscription management platforms, as well as OEMs and eSIMs, must all closely align to ensure eSIM downloads are adequately protected end-to-end. 

The other pressure is around the supply chain for MNOs. eSIMs are largely managed the same way we did with physical SIM cards – one eSIM profile for each offer. This creates multiplications of Stock Keeping Units, added costs, and slower time to market. Digitalising the eSIM lifecycle, from ordering to monitoring, and making real-time operations possible, is essential to prevent profile shortage. With Dynamic Profile Adaptation capabilities, operators can simplify eSIM profile management and benefit from more flexibility and speed to launch new offers.

MNOs are also increasingly connecting IoT devices of all kinds to their networks. The GSMA’s SGP.32 standard, developed specifically to make IoT eSIM provisioning easier, is only a foundation. Scaling IoT deployments successfully involves closely looking and investing in everything around that standard, from closing ecosystem gaps and addressing visibility issues, through to orchestration challenges and scaling costs. With the right eSIM management platform in place, operators can scale, alongside managing broad device diversity in a dynamic fashion.

Customer and subscriber service is the other part of the MNO operation, and here AI can have a transformational impact to help agents work more efficiently. Information about the subscriptions is all too often spread across disparate systems, which causes first-level support to escalate issues as they can’t troubleshoot on their own. This creates both high handling time and subscriber frustration. By connecting MNO AI assistants to the subscription management platform, they can retrieve and aggregate live data. This facilitates first-contact resolution and is easy to use for non-technical support teams.

Thales has built many years of expertise in eSIM provisioning at scale across the full lifecycle, with over 400 million eSIMs activated to date. From robust inventory management through to rapid generation, Thales has helped set up over 450 platforms across 90 countries, all while ensuring full data integrity and compliance with GSMA standards. 

For MNOs and MVNOs, Thales solutions allow them to deploy white-labelled, omni-channel solutions across B2C and B2B2C models. They span front-office processes, with a choice of activation methods for end users, through to back-office processes that aim to help optimise eSIM profile management and increase eSIM activation success rates. 

The modern mobile communications market is one where the consumer is firmly in charge. Thales helps Mobile Network Operators with a full suite of services to help optimise the reach and activation of eSIM-capable consumer devices, as well as portability between non-eSIM and eSIM-capable devices. 

By streamlining their operations, elevating end-user interactions, and delivering tailored connectivity offerings, MNOs can put themselves in the best possible position to benefit from the eSIM revolution.